Has the Real Estate Market Hit Bottom Yet?

Numbers suggest that things are likely to get worse before they get better. After a sluggish start to the spring selling season, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending sales dropped 3.2 percent in April, the most recent data available, while mortgage applications fell about 2 percent over the past month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Since peaking last summer, the median price of an existing house has now fallen by $9,300 to $220,900, about 4 percent, according to the NAR. That's the first year-over-year decline ever recorded. But prices are still a third ahead of where they were when the market began its amazing run back in 2003. Sales, too, have fallen by about 20 percent since their 2005 peak, while the inventory of unsold homes has nearly doubled to an unwieldy 8.4-month supply.

It appears that it's more psychology than actual hardship that's keeping most of the buyers away. In reality, there hasn't been a better time to buy a home in years!

Some economists say many sellers will have to reduce their prices by at least as much as they have already—another 4 percent or so—before the market finally reaches equilibrium. Given how slow some have been to do that, it might take until next summer before things finally bottom out.

That having been said, tightening credit standards—not only for subprime borrowers but also for more creditworthy ones—has clearly dampened demand and pushed sellers to do more than just lower prices. In a recent survey by the Federal Reserve, nearly half of all loan officers said they had raised their standards for nontraditional loans, while 15 percent said they had increased requirements on prime borrowers, raising credit score minimums and more closely scrutinizing property appraisals.

Have you been thinking about buying a home but have been scared into a closet by all the negative news? We'd love to hear your comments about it by clicking the comment link below.

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